H2N2V1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000F96

Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic

Identifieur interne : 000F96 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000F95; suivant : 000F97

Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic

Auteurs : Duygu Balcan [États-Unis] ; Vittoria Colizza [Italie] ; Andrew C. Singer [Royaume-Uni] ; Christos Chouaid [France] ; Hao Hu [États-Unis] ; Bruno Goncalves [États-Unis] ; Paolo Bajardi [France] ; Chiara Poletto [Italie] ; Jose J. Ramasco [Italie] ; Nicola Perra [États-Unis] ; Michele Tizzoni [Italie] ; Daniela Paolotti [Italie] ; Wouter Van Den Broeck [Italie] ; Alain-Jacques Valleron [France] ; Alessandro Vespignani [Italie]

Source :

PLoS Currents [ 2157-3999 ] ; 2009-12-07.

RBID : Hal:hal-00474688

Descripteurs français

Wicri :
- topic : Antibiotique.

English descriptors

mix :
- Antibiotic, H1N1.

Abstract

While the H1N1 pandemic is reaching high levels of influenza activity in the Northern Hemisphere, the attention focuses on the ability of national health systems to respond to the expected massive influx of additional patients. Given the limited capacity of health care providers and hospitals and the limited supplies of antibiotics, it is important to predict the potential demand on critical care to assist planning for the management of resources and plan for additional stockpiling. We develop a disease model that considers the development of influenza-associated complications and incorporate it into a global epidemic model to assess the expected surge in critical care demands due to viral and bacterial pneumonia. Based on the most recent estimates of complication rates, we predict the expected peak number of intensive care unit beds and the stockpile of antibiotic courses needed for the current pandemic wave. The effects of dynamic vaccination campaigns, and of variations of the relative proportion of bacterial co-infection in complications and different length of staying in the intensive care unit are explored.

Url:

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00474688

DOI: 10.1371/currents.rrn1133

Affiliations:

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

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to stream Hal, to step Curation: 000204
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Le document en format XML

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<author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Paolotti, Daniela" sort="Paolotti, Daniela" uniqKey="Paolotti D" first="Daniela" last="Paolotti">Daniela Paolotti</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Van Den Broeck, Wouter" sort="Van Den Broeck, Wouter" uniqKey="Van Den Broeck W" first="Wouter" last="Van Den Broeck">Wouter Van Den Broeck</name>
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          <orgName type="acronym">ISI</orgName>
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<author><name sortKey="Valleron, Alain Jacques" sort="Valleron, Alain Jacques" uniqKey="Valleron A" first="Alain-Jacques" last="Valleron">Alain-Jacques Valleron</name>
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          <orgName type="acronym">UPMC</orgName>
          <date type="end">2017-12-31</date>
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</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Vespignani, Alessandro" sort="Vespignani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Vespignani A" first="Alessandro" last="Vespignani">Alessandro Vespignani</name>
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</analytic>
<idno type="DOI">10.1371/currents.rrn1133</idno>
<series><title level="j">PLoS Currents</title>
<idno type="ISSN">2157-3999</idno>
<imprint><date type="datePub">2009-12-07</date>
</imprint>
</series>
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<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="mix" xml:lang="en"><term>Antibiotic</term>
<term>H1N1</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Antibiotique</term>
</keywords>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">              <p>While the H1N1 pandemic is reaching high levels of influenza activity in the Northern Hemisphere, the attention focuses on the ability of national health systems to respond to the expected massive influx of additional patients. Given the limited capacity of health care providers and hospitals and the limited supplies of antibiotics, it is important to predict the potential demand on critical care to assist planning for the management of resources and plan for additional stockpiling. We develop a disease model that considers the development of influenza-associated complications and incorporate it into a global epidemic model to assess the expected surge in critical care demands due to viral and bacterial pneumonia. Based on the most recent estimates of complication rates, we predict the expected peak number of intensive care unit beds and the stockpile of antibiotic courses needed for the current pandemic wave. The effects of dynamic vaccination campaigns, and of variations of the relative proportion of bacterial co-infection in complications and different length of staying in the intensive care unit are explored.</p>
            </div>
</front>
</TEI>
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Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic

Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic

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